Confidence
Direct sources
Zariman / Tuvul CommonsVoid CascadeRot. C16.00%6.3 expected runs · 14 runs for 90% · ≈ 44 minZariman / Everview ArcVoid FloodRot. C16.00%6.3 expected runs · 14 runs for 90% · ≈ 56 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 20-40BountyRot. A25.00%4.0 expected runs · 9 runs for 90% · ≈ 63 minDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 15-25BountyRot. A18.42%5.4 expected runs · 12 runs for 90% · ≈ 84 minDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 30-40BountyRot. A17.50%5.7 expected runs · 12 runs for 90% · ≈ 84 minDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 30-40BountyRot. B17.50%5.7 expected runs · 12 runs for 90% · ≈ 84 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 20-40BountyRot. A15.00%6.7 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.8 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 30-50BountyRot. A14.81%6.8 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.8 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 20-40BountyRot. A13.79%7.3 expected runs · 16 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 20-40BountyRot. A13.24%7.6 expected runs · 17 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.0 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 15-25BountyRot. A10.29%9.7 expected runs · 22 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.6 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 30-40BountyRot. A9.59%10.4 expected runs · 23 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.7 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 30-40BountyRot. B9.59%10.4 expected runs · 23 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.7 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 20-40BountyRot. A9.04%11.1 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.9 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 30-50BountyRot. A8.99%11.1 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.9 hZariman / Oro WorksVoid ArmageddonRot. C16.00%6.3 expected runs · 14 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 25% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.