Confidence
Direct sources
Mars / OlympusDisruptionRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 38 minMars / OlympusDisruptionRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 38 minMercury / SuiseiSpyRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minVenus / VesperSpyRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minVenus / UndaSpyRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minEarth / CambriaSpyRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minMars / ArvalSpyRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minCeres / HapkeSpyRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minPhobos / GrildrigSpyRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minPhobos / ShklovskySpyRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minDeimos / HyfDefenseRot. A11.11%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.5 hDeimos / TerroremSurvivalRot. A11.11%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hMercury / ApollodorusSurvivalRot. C11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hVenus / V PrimeSurvivalRot. C11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hVenus / MalvaSurvivalRot. C11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. C15.00%6.7 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.8 h
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 15% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.