Confidence
Direct sources
Venus / KilikenExcavationRot. C11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 37 minEarth / EverestExcavationRot. C11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 37 minEarth / TikalExcavationRot. C11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 37 minMars / AugustusExcavationRot. C11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 37 minPhobos / WendellExcavationRot. C11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 37 minMars / OlympusDisruptionRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 38 minMars / OlympusDisruptionRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 38 minVoid / HepitCapture6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 40 minVoid / HepitCapture6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 40 minVenus / KilikenExcavationRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 53 minEarth / EverestExcavationRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 53 minEarth / TikalExcavationRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 53 minMars / AugustusExcavationRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 53 minPhobos / WendellExcavationRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 53 minMercury / SuiseiSpyRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minVenus / VesperSpyRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minVenus / UndaSpyRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minEarth / CambriaSpyRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minMars / ArvalSpyRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minCeres / HapkeSpyRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minPhobos / GrildrigSpyRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minPhobos / ShklovskySpyRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 60 minMercury / OdinInterceptionRot. A10.00%10.0 expected runs · 22 runs for 90% · ≈ 81 minVenus / CythereanInterceptionRot. A10.00%10.0 expected runs · 22 runs for 90% · ≈ 81 minEarth / GaiaInterceptionRot. A10.00%10.0 expected runs · 22 runs for 90% · ≈ 81 minMars / AlatorInterceptionRot. A10.00%10.0 expected runs · 22 runs for 90% · ≈ 81 minCeres / CinxiaInterceptionRot. A10.00%10.0 expected runs · 22 runs for 90% · ≈ 81 minVoid / TeshubExterminate6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 85 minVoid / TeshubExterminate6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 85 minDeimos / HyfDefenseRot. A11.11%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.5 hVoid / TaranisDefenseRot. B11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.5 hDeimos / TerroremSurvivalRot. A11.11%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hMercury / ApollodorusSurvivalRot. C11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hVenus / V PrimeSurvivalRot. C11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hVenus / MalvaSurvivalRot. C11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hMars / ArcadiaSurvivalRot. C11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hCeres / GabiiSurvivalRot. C11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hVoid / AniSurvivalRot. A11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hPhobos / StickneySurvivalRot. C11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hPhobos / FlimnapSurvivalRot. C11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hVoid / StribogSabotage6.25%16.0 expected runs · 36 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.8 hCeres / SeimeniDefenseRot. A6.90%14.5 expected runs · 33 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.8 hMercury / LaresDefenseRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hVenus / TesseraDefenseRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hEarth / LithDefenseRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hMars / SpearDefenseRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hCeres / VarroDefenseRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hCeres / CastaDefenseRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hCeres / EgeriaDefenseRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hPhobos / DrunloDefenseRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hPhobos / GulliverDefenseRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hPluto / SechuraDefenseRot. A6.90%14.5 expected runs · 33 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.1 hEris / AkkadDefenseRot. A6.90%14.5 expected runs · 33 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.3 hMercury / ApollodorusSurvivalRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.4 hVenus / V PrimeSurvivalRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.4 hVenus / MalvaSurvivalRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.4 hMars / ArcadiaSurvivalRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.4 hCeres / GabiiSurvivalRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.4 hPhobos / StickneySurvivalRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.4 hPhobos / FlimnapSurvivalRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.4 hVenus / RomulaDefenseRot. A6.90%14.5 expected runs · 33 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.5 hEarth / CobaDefenseRot. A6.90%14.5 expected runs · 33 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.5 hMars / KadeshDefenseRot. A6.90%14.5 expected runs · 33 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.5 hJupiter / SinaiDefenseRot. A6.90%14.5 expected runs · 33 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.5 hSedna / SangeruDefenseRot. A6.90%14.5 expected runs · 33 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.5 hEuropa / LarzacDefenseRot. A6.90%14.5 expected runs · 33 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.5 hVoid / TaranisDefenseRot. A6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.6 hVoid / TaranisDefenseRot. A6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.6 hSanctuary / Sanctuary OnslaughtSanctuary OnslaughtRot. A7.14%14.0 expected runs · 32 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.7 hSanctuary / Elite Sanctuary OnslaughtSanctuary OnslaughtRot. A7.04%14.2 expected runs · 32 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.7 hVoid / TaranisDefenseRot. C6.25%16.0 expected runs · 36 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hVoid / TiwazMobile Defense6.25%16.0 expected runs · 36 runs for 90% · ≈ 3.0 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 15-25BountyRot. A0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90% · ≈ 40.0 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 15-25BountyRot. A0.58%172.4 expected runs · 396 runs for 90% · ≈ 46.2 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 15-25BountyRot. A0.42%238.1 expected runs · 548 runs for 90% · ≈ 63.9 hDuviri / The CircuitThe CircuitRot. C11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90%Venus / Orvin-HaarcSkirmishRot. B10.00%10.0 expected runs · 22 runs for 90%Phobos / MemphisDefectionRot. B10.00%10.0 expected runs · 22 runs for 90%Phobos / MemphisDefectionRot. C10.00%10.0 expected runs · 22 runs for 90%Phobos / KeplerRushRot. C9.68%10.3 expected runs · 23 runs for 90%Duviri / The CircuitThe CircuitRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90%Venus / Luckless ExpanseSkirmishRot. B5.88%17.0 expected runs · 38 runs for 90%Venus / Falling GlorySkirmishRot. B5.88%17.0 expected runs · 38 runs for 90%Earth / Sover Strait (Caches)Caches5.00%20.0 expected runs · 45 runs for 90%Earth / Iota Temple (Caches)Caches5.00%20.0 expected runs · 45 runs for 90%Earth / Ogal Cluster (Caches)Caches5.00%20.0 expected runs · 45 runs for 90%Earth / Korm's Belt (Caches)Caches5.00%20.0 expected runs · 45 runs for 90%Earth / Bendar Cluster (Caches)Caches5.00%20.0 expected runs · 45 runs for 90%Venus / Vesper StraitSkirmishRot. B4.55%22.0 expected runs · 50 runs for 90%Venus / Bifrost Echo (Caches)CachesRot. A4.35%23.0 expected runs · 52 runs for 90%Venus / Beacon Shield Ring (Caches)CachesRot. A4.35%23.0 expected runs · 52 runs for 90%Venus / Orvin-Haarc (Caches)CachesRot. A4.35%23.0 expected runs · 52 runs for 90%Venus / Vesper Strait (Caches)CachesRot. A4.35%23.0 expected runs · 52 runs for 90%Venus / Luckless Expanse (Caches)CachesRot. A4.35%23.0 expected runs · 52 runs for 90%Venus / Falling Glory (Caches)CachesRot. A4.35%23.0 expected runs · 52 runs for 90%Earth / Sover StraitSkirmish3.00%33.3 expected runs · 76 runs for 90%Earth / Iota TempleSkirmish3.00%33.3 expected runs · 76 runs for 90%Earth / Ogal ClusterSkirmish3.00%33.3 expected runs · 76 runs for 90%Earth / Korm's BeltSkirmish3.00%33.3 expected runs · 76 runs for 90%Earth / Bendar ClusterSkirmish3.00%33.3 expected runs · 76 runs for 90%Venus / Bifrost EchoSkirmish2.44%41.0 expected runs · 94 runs for 90%Venus / Beacon Shield RingSkirmish2.44%41.0 expected runs · 94 runs for 90%Phobos / OpikRushRot. A2.21%45.2 expected runs · 104 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.