WarframeAlchemyLab ES
Relic opening
Refinement
Confidence

Via relics

Meso Y251.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Best relic source: Mars / Olympus (Disruption · Rot. C · 14.3%) → 14 runs + 2 expected opens · ≈ 39 min expected total time
Neo V959.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Best relic source: Veil Proxima / Flexa (Caches) (Caches · Rot. B · 6.5%) — no known timing
Axi A2Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith D6Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith K11Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith T11Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Meso D4Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Meso N15Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Meso O6Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Neo A9Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Neo E3Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Axi A9Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Axi D3Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Axi F1Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Axi G3Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Axi O4Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Axi S14Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Axi T12Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Axi Z2Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith A3Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith B11Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith C3Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith N11Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith P5Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith P9Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith R2Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith S4Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith S7Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith V5Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Meso C3Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Meso D1Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Meso H7Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Meso M4Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Meso P3Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Neo A11Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Neo C4Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Neo D10Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Neo N2Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Neo P3Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Neo S10Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Neo T10Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Neo Z2Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.

We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.

Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.