Confidence
Direct sources
Pluto / Obol CrossingSkirmishRot. A20.00%5.0 expected runs · 11 runs for 90%Pluto / Fenton's FieldSkirmishRot. A20.00%5.0 expected runs · 11 runs for 90%Pluto / Khufu EnvoySkirmishRot. A14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90%Pluto / Peregrine AxisSkirmishRot. C8.00%12.5 expected runs · 28 runs for 90%Pluto / Peregrine AxisSkirmishRot. C8.00%12.5 expected runs · 28 runs for 90%Pluto / Seven SirensSkirmish7.23%13.8 expected runs · 31 runs for 90%Pluto / Profit MarginSkirmish7.23%13.8 expected runs · 31 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / FlexaSkirmish6.00%16.7 expected runs · 38 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / H-2 CloudSkirmish6.00%16.7 expected runs · 38 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / R-9 CloudSkirmish6.00%16.7 expected runs · 38 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / Nsu GridSkirmish6.00%16.7 expected runs · 38 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 20% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.