Confidence
Direct sources
Deimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 25-30BountyRot. A2.67%37.5 expected runs · 86 runs for 90% · ≈ 10.0 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 25-30BountyRot. C2.63%38.0 expected runs · 87 runs for 90% · ≈ 10.2 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 25-30BountyRot. B2.58%38.8 expected runs · 89 runs for 90% · ≈ 10.4 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 25-30BountyRot. A2.56%39.1 expected runs · 89 runs for 90% · ≈ 10.4 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 25-30BountyRot. B2.50%40.0 expected runs · 91 runs for 90% · ≈ 10.6 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 25-30BountyRot. C2.50%40.0 expected runs · 91 runs for 90% · ≈ 10.6 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 25-30BountyRot. A1.75%57.1 expected runs · 131 runs for 90% · ≈ 15.3 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 25-30BountyRot. C1.72%58.1 expected runs · 133 runs for 90% · ≈ 15.5 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 25-30BountyRot. B1.70%58.8 expected runs · 135 runs for 90% · ≈ 15.8 h
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 2.67% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.