Confidence
Direct sources
Mercury / SuiseiSpyRot. C22.56%4.4 expected runs · 10 runs for 90% · ≈ 40 minVenus / VesperSpyRot. C22.56%4.4 expected runs · 10 runs for 90% · ≈ 40 minVenus / UndaSpyRot. C22.56%4.4 expected runs · 10 runs for 90% · ≈ 40 minEarth / CambriaSpyRot. C22.56%4.4 expected runs · 10 runs for 90% · ≈ 40 minMars / ArvalSpyRot. C22.56%4.4 expected runs · 10 runs for 90% · ≈ 40 minCeres / HapkeSpyRot. C22.56%4.4 expected runs · 10 runs for 90% · ≈ 40 minPhobos / GrildrigSpyRot. C22.56%4.4 expected runs · 10 runs for 90% · ≈ 40 minPhobos / ShklovskySpyRot. C22.56%4.4 expected runs · 10 runs for 90% · ≈ 40 minVenus / Orvin-HaarcSkirmishRot. C36.00%2.8 expected runs · 6 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 36% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.