Confidence
Direct sources
Uranus / RosalindSpyRot. C22.56%4.4 expected runs · 10 runs for 90% · ≈ 40 minNeptune / NereidSpyRot. C22.56%4.4 expected runs · 10 runs for 90% · ≈ 40 minPluto / OceanumSpyRot. C22.56%4.4 expected runs · 10 runs for 90% · ≈ 40 minEris / CyathSpyRot. C22.56%4.4 expected runs · 10 runs for 90% · ≈ 40 minEris / GnathosSpyRot. C22.56%4.4 expected runs · 10 runs for 90% · ≈ 40 minSedna / TikolosheSpyRot. C22.56%4.4 expected runs · 10 runs for 90% · ≈ 40 minSedna / KelpieSpyRot. C22.56%4.4 expected runs · 10 runs for 90% · ≈ 40 minPluto / Peregrine AxisSkirmishRot. C36.00%2.8 expected runs · 6 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.