Confidence
Direct sources
Venus / Bifrost Echo (Caches)CachesRot. B9.68%10.3 expected runs · 23 runs for 90%Venus / Beacon Shield Ring (Caches)CachesRot. B9.68%10.3 expected runs · 23 runs for 90%Venus / Orvin-Haarc (Caches)CachesRot. B9.68%10.3 expected runs · 23 runs for 90%Venus / Vesper Strait (Caches)CachesRot. B9.68%10.3 expected runs · 23 runs for 90%Venus / Luckless Expanse (Caches)CachesRot. B9.68%10.3 expected runs · 23 runs for 90%Venus / Falling Glory (Caches)CachesRot. B9.68%10.3 expected runs · 23 runs for 90%Neptune / Arva Vector (Caches)CachesRot. B9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90%Neptune / Nu-Gua Mines (Caches)CachesRot. B9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90%Neptune / Enkidu Ice Drifts (Caches)CachesRot. B9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90%Neptune / Mammon's Prospect (Caches)CachesRot. B9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90%Neptune / Sovereign Grasp (Caches)CachesRot. B9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90%Neptune / Brom Cluster (Caches)CachesRot. B9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90%Pluto / Khufu Envoy (Caches)CachesRot. B9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90%Pluto / Seven Sirens (Caches)CachesRot. B9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90%Pluto / Obol Crossing (Caches)CachesRot. B9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90%Pluto / Fenton's Field (Caches)CachesRot. B9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 9.68% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.