Confidence
Direct sources
Uranus / RosalindSpyRot. C8.60%11.6 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hNeptune / NereidSpyRot. C8.60%11.6 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hPluto / OceanumSpyRot. C8.60%11.6 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hEris / CyathSpyRot. C8.60%11.6 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hEris / GnathosSpyRot. C8.60%11.6 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hSedna / TikolosheSpyRot. C8.60%11.6 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hSedna / KelpieSpyRot. C8.60%11.6 expected runs · 26 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hMercury / LaresDefenseRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hVenus / TesseraDefenseRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hEarth / LithDefenseRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hMars / SpearDefenseRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hCeres / VarroDefenseRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hCeres / CastaDefenseRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hCeres / EgeriaDefenseRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hPhobos / DrunloDefenseRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hEris / OestrusInfested SalvageRot. B7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 10% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.