Confidence
Direct sources
Ceres / SeimeniDefenseRot. C6.90%14.5 expected runs · 33 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.8 hPluto / SechuraDefenseRot. C6.90%14.5 expected runs · 33 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.1 hEris / AkkadDefenseRot. C6.90%14.5 expected runs · 33 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.3 hVenus / RomulaDefenseRot. C6.90%14.5 expected runs · 33 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.5 hEarth / CobaDefenseRot. C6.90%14.5 expected runs · 33 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.5 hMars / KadeshDefenseRot. C6.90%14.5 expected runs · 33 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.5 hJupiter / SinaiDefenseRot. C6.90%14.5 expected runs · 33 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.5 hSedna / SangeruDefenseRot. C6.90%14.5 expected runs · 33 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.5 hEuropa / LarzacDefenseRot. C6.90%14.5 expected runs · 33 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.5 hDuviri / Endless: Tier 1Normal0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90%Duviri / Endless: Tier 3Normal0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 11.06% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.