Confidence
Direct sources
Kuva Fortress / TaveuniSurvivalRot. C12.00%8.3 expected runs · 19 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.6 hSaturn / CaracolDefectionRot. C15.00%6.7 expected runs · 15 runs for 90%Neptune / YursaDefectionRot. C15.00%6.7 expected runs · 15 runs for 90%Phobos / MemphisDefectionRot. C15.00%6.7 expected runs · 15 runs for 90%Neptune / YursaDefectionRot. B6.00%16.7 expected runs · 38 runs for 90%Phobos / MemphisDefectionRot. B6.00%16.7 expected runs · 38 runs for 90%Saturn / CaracolDefectionRot. B5.45%18.3 expected runs · 42 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.