Confidence
Direct sources
Uranus / MirandaDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hUranus / BiancaDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hUranus / StephanoDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hNeptune / ProteusDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hPluto / Outer TerminusDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hEris / Kala-AzarDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hEris / IxodesDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hLua / StöFlerDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hKuva Fortress / NabukDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hSedna / HydronDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 8.4 hDuviri / Endless: Tier 4Normal1.49%67.1 expected runs · 154 runs for 90%Duviri / Endless: Tier 6Normal1.03%97.1 expected runs · 223 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 2.26% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.