Confidence
Direct sources
Venus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 10-30BountyRot. A22.50%4.4 expected runs · 10 runs for 90% · ≈ 70 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 10-30BountyRot. B22.50%4.4 expected runs · 10 runs for 90% · ≈ 70 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 10-30BountyRot. C22.50%4.4 expected runs · 10 runs for 90% · ≈ 70 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 10-30BountyRot. A12.00%8.3 expected runs · 19 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 10-30BountyRot. B12.00%8.3 expected runs · 19 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 10-30BountyRot. C12.00%8.3 expected runs · 19 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 10-30BountyRot. A10.59%9.4 expected runs · 21 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.5 hVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 10-30BountyRot. B10.59%9.4 expected runs · 21 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.5 hVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 10-30BountyRot. C10.59%9.4 expected runs · 21 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.5 h
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 22.5% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.