Confidence
Direct sources
Earth / Cetus · Nivel 20-40BountyRot. C26.09%3.8 expected runs · 8 runs for 90% · ≈ 56 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 20-40BountyRot. A24.62%4.1 expected runs · 9 runs for 90% · ≈ 63 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 20-40BountyRot. B23.53%4.2 expected runs · 9 runs for 90% · ≈ 63 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 20-40BountyRot. C10.40%9.6 expected runs · 21 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.5 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 20-40BountyRot. C10.17%9.8 expected runs · 22 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.6 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 20-40BountyRot. B9.30%10.8 expected runs · 24 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 20-40BountyRot. B9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.9 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 20-40BountyRot. A9.04%11.1 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.9 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 20-40BountyRot. A8.84%11.3 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.9 h
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 26.09% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.