Confidence
Direct sources
Venus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. A33.33%3.0 expected runs · 6 runs for 90% · ≈ 42 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. B33.33%3.0 expected runs · 6 runs for 90% · ≈ 42 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. C33.33%3.0 expected runs · 6 runs for 90% · ≈ 42 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. A33.33%3.0 expected runs · 6 runs for 90% · ≈ 42 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. B33.33%3.0 expected runs · 6 runs for 90% · ≈ 42 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. C33.33%3.0 expected runs · 6 runs for 90% · ≈ 42 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. A20.00%5.0 expected runs · 11 runs for 90% · ≈ 77 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. B20.00%5.0 expected runs · 11 runs for 90% · ≈ 77 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. C20.00%5.0 expected runs · 11 runs for 90% · ≈ 77 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. A20.00%5.0 expected runs · 11 runs for 90% · ≈ 77 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. B20.00%5.0 expected runs · 11 runs for 90% · ≈ 77 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. C20.00%5.0 expected runs · 11 runs for 90% · ≈ 77 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. A16.67%6.0 expected runs · 13 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.5 hVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. B16.67%6.0 expected runs · 13 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.5 hVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. C16.67%6.0 expected runs · 13 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.5 hVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. A16.67%6.0 expected runs · 13 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.5 h
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 33.33% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.