Confidence
Direct sources
Eris / Candiru (Caches)CachesRot. C15.49%6.5 expected runs · 14 runs for 90%Eris / Lepis (Caches)CachesRot. C15.49%6.5 expected runs · 14 runs for 90%Eris / Psoro (Caches)CachesRot. C15.49%6.5 expected runs · 14 runs for 90%Eris / Viver (Caches)CachesRot. C15.49%6.5 expected runs · 14 runs for 90%Eris / Naeglar (Caches)CachesRot. C15.49%6.5 expected runs · 14 runs for 90%Deimos / Formido (Caches)CachesRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90%Duviri / Endless: Tier 4Normal1.49%67.1 expected runs · 154 runs for 90%Duviri / Endless: Tier 6Normal1.03%97.1 expected runs · 223 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.