Confidence
Direct sources
Lua / PavlovSpyRot. B7.49%13.4 expected runs · 30 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.0 hJupiter / IoDefenseRot. B6.25%16.0 expected runs · 36 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.0 hSaturn / HeleneDefenseRot. B6.25%16.0 expected runs · 36 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.3 hMercury / OdinInterceptionRot. B5.56%18.0 expected runs · 41 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.5 hUranus / MirandaDefenseRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.6 hUranus / BiancaDefenseRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.6 hUranus / StephanoDefenseRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.6 hNeptune / ProteusDefenseRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.6 hPluto / Outer TerminusDefenseRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.6 hEris / Kala-AzarDefenseRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.6 hEris / IxodesDefenseRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.6 hLua / StöFlerDefenseRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.6 hKuva Fortress / NabukDefenseRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.6 hSedna / CamenaeDefenseRot. B6.25%16.0 expected runs · 36 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hEuropa / PaimonDefenseRot. B6.25%16.0 expected runs · 36 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 hSedna / HydronDefenseRot. B6.67%15.0 expected runs · 34 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.8 h
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 7.49% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.