Confidence
Direct sources
Mercury / LaresDefenseRot. C7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hVenus / TesseraDefenseRot. C7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hEarth / LithDefenseRot. C7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hMars / SpearDefenseRot. C7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hCeres / VarroDefenseRot. C7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hCeres / CastaDefenseRot. C7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hCeres / EgeriaDefenseRot. C7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hPhobos / DrunloDefenseRot. C7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hPhobos / GulliverDefenseRot. C7.69%13.0 expected runs · 29 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hUranus / MirandaDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hUranus / BiancaDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hUranus / StephanoDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hNeptune / ProteusDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hPluto / Outer TerminusDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hEris / Kala-AzarDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 hEris / IxodesDefenseRot. C2.26%44.2 expected runs · 101 runs for 90% · ≈ 7.7 h
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.