Confidence
Direct sources
Neptune / DespinaExcavationRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hPluto / HieraconExcavationRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hEuropa / CholistanExcavationRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hUranus / OpheliaSurvivalRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.1 hUranus / CupidSurvivalRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.1 hPluto / PalusSurvivalRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.1 hEris / HymenoSurvivalRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.1 hEris / NimusSurvivalRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.1 hSedna / SelkieSurvivalRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.1 hSedna / ScyllaSurvivalRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.1 hSedna / YemajaSurvivalRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.1 hLua / TychoSurvivalRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.1 hDeimos / Formido (Caches)CachesRot. B4.42%22.6 expected runs · 51 runs for 90%Duviri / Endless: Tier 1Normal0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90%Duviri / Endless: Tier 3Normal0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 4.42% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.