Confidence
Direct sources
Venus / KilikenExcavationRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hEarth / EverestExcavationRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hEarth / TikalExcavationRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hMars / AugustusExcavationRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hPhobos / WendellExcavationRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hMercury / ApollodorusSurvivalRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.1 hVenus / V PrimeSurvivalRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.1 hMars / ArcadiaSurvivalRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.1 hPhobos / StickneySurvivalRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.1 hPhobos / FlimnapSurvivalRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90% · ≈ 5.1 hDuviri / The CircuitThe CircuitRot. C3.76%26.6 expected runs · 61 runs for 90%Duviri / Endless: Tier 1Normal0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90%Duviri / Endless: Tier 3Normal0.67%149.3 expected runs · 343 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 3.76% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.