Confidence
Direct sources
Earth / Cetus · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. A50.00%2.0 expected runs · 4 runs for 90% · ≈ 28 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. B50.00%2.0 expected runs · 4 runs for 90% · ≈ 28 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. C50.00%2.0 expected runs · 4 runs for 90% · ≈ 28 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. A50.00%2.0 expected runs · 4 runs for 90% · ≈ 28 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. B50.00%2.0 expected runs · 4 runs for 90% · ≈ 28 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. C50.00%2.0 expected runs · 4 runs for 90% · ≈ 28 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. A21.74%4.6 expected runs · 10 runs for 90% · ≈ 70 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. B21.74%4.6 expected runs · 10 runs for 90% · ≈ 70 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. C21.74%4.6 expected runs · 10 runs for 90% · ≈ 70 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. A21.74%4.6 expected runs · 10 runs for 90% · ≈ 70 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. B21.74%4.6 expected runs · 10 runs for 90% · ≈ 70 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. C21.74%4.6 expected runs · 10 runs for 90% · ≈ 70 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. A16.89%5.9 expected runs · 13 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.5 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. B16.89%5.9 expected runs · 13 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.5 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. C16.89%5.9 expected runs · 13 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.5 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. A16.89%5.9 expected runs · 13 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.5 h
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 50% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.