WarframeAlchemyLab ES
Relic opening
Refinement
Confidence

Via relics

Meso X151.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Best relic source: Mars / Olympus (Disruption · Rot. C · 14.3%) → 14 runs + 2 expected opens · ≈ 39 min expected total time
Axi H6Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Axi K10Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Axi N6Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Axi S17Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Axi V2Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Axi V3Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Axi V5Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith B2Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith B9Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith C6Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith K2Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith L2Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith N5Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith P1Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith V9Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Meso A4Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Neo A11Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Neo K3Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Neo N14Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Neo P4Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Neo X1Vaulted59.04% · 1.7 expected opens · 3 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Axi C9Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Axi H7Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Axi N8Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith H8Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith K8Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Lith Z3Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Meso N13Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Meso P2Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Neo N19Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.
Neo V10Vaulted51.78% · 1.9 expected opens · 4 runs for 90%
Vaulted: not currently dropping — get it by trading or in a future unvault.

We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.

Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.