Confidence
Direct sources
Earth / Cetus · Nivel 50-70BountyRot. A13.51%7.4 expected runs · 16 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 50-70BountyRot. A13.51%7.4 expected runs · 16 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 50-70BountyRot. A12.50%8.0 expected runs · 18 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.1 hVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 50-70BountyRot. A12.50%8.0 expected runs · 18 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.1 hEarth / Cetus · Nivel 50-70BountyRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.9 hVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 50-70BountyRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.9 h
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 13.51% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.