Confidence
Direct sources
Neptune / Arva Vector (Caches)CachesRot. A8.33%12.0 expected runs · 27 runs for 90%Neptune / Nu-Gua Mines (Caches)CachesRot. A8.33%12.0 expected runs · 27 runs for 90%Neptune / Enkidu Ice Drifts (Caches)CachesRot. A8.33%12.0 expected runs · 27 runs for 90%Neptune / Mammon's Prospect (Caches)CachesRot. A8.33%12.0 expected runs · 27 runs for 90%Neptune / Sovereign Grasp (Caches)CachesRot. A8.33%12.0 expected runs · 27 runs for 90%Neptune / Brom Cluster (Caches)CachesRot. A8.33%12.0 expected runs · 27 runs for 90%Pluto / Khufu Envoy (Caches)CachesRot. A8.33%12.0 expected runs · 27 runs for 90%Pluto / Seven Sirens (Caches)CachesRot. A8.33%12.0 expected runs · 27 runs for 90%Pluto / Obol Crossing (Caches)CachesRot. A8.33%12.0 expected runs · 27 runs for 90%Pluto / Fenton's Field (Caches)CachesRot. A8.33%12.0 expected runs · 27 runs for 90%Pluto / Profit Margin (Caches)CachesRot. A8.33%12.0 expected runs · 27 runs for 90%Pluto / Peregrine Axis (Caches)CachesRot. A8.33%12.0 expected runs · 27 runs for 90%Saturn / Mordo Cluster (Caches)Caches4.03%24.8 expected runs · 56 runs for 90%Saturn / Kasio's Rest (Caches)Caches4.03%24.8 expected runs · 56 runs for 90%Saturn / Nodo Gap (Caches)Caches4.03%24.8 expected runs · 56 runs for 90%Saturn / Lupal Pass (Caches)Caches4.03%24.8 expected runs · 56 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 8.33% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.