Confidence
Direct sources
Deimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. A43.48%2.3 expected runs · 5 runs for 90% · ≈ 35 minDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. A43.48%2.3 expected runs · 5 runs for 90% · ≈ 35 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. A38.78%2.6 expected runs · 5 runs for 90% · ≈ 35 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. B38.78%2.6 expected runs · 5 runs for 90% · ≈ 35 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. C38.78%2.6 expected runs · 5 runs for 90% · ≈ 35 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. A38.78%2.6 expected runs · 5 runs for 90% · ≈ 35 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. B38.78%2.6 expected runs · 5 runs for 90% · ≈ 35 minEarth / Cetus · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. C38.78%2.6 expected runs · 5 runs for 90% · ≈ 35 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 30-50BountyRot. A33.33%3.0 expected runs · 6 runs for 90% · ≈ 42 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 30-50BountyRot. B33.33%3.0 expected runs · 6 runs for 90% · ≈ 42 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 30-50BountyRot. C33.33%3.0 expected runs · 6 runs for 90% · ≈ 42 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. A33.33%3.0 expected runs · 6 runs for 90% · ≈ 42 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. B33.33%3.0 expected runs · 6 runs for 90% · ≈ 42 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 40-60BountyRot. C33.33%3.0 expected runs · 6 runs for 90% · ≈ 42 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. A33.33%3.0 expected runs · 6 runs for 90% · ≈ 42 minVenus / Orb Vallis · Nivel 100-100BountyRot. B33.33%3.0 expected runs · 6 runs for 90% · ≈ 42 min
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 43.48% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.