Confidence
Direct sources
Pluto / Khufu Envoy (Caches)CachesRot. B9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90%Pluto / Seven Sirens (Caches)CachesRot. B9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90%Pluto / Obol Crossing (Caches)CachesRot. B9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90%Pluto / Fenton's Field (Caches)CachesRot. B9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90%Pluto / Profit Margin (Caches)CachesRot. B9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90%Pluto / Peregrine Axis (Caches)CachesRot. B9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / Calabash (Caches)CachesRot. B9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / Numina (Caches)CachesRot. B9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / Arc Silver (Caches)CachesRot. B9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / Erato (Caches)CachesRot. B9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / Lu-Yan (Caches)CachesRot. B9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / Sabmir Cloud (Caches)CachesRot. B9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / Flexa (Caches)CachesRot. B6.52%15.3 expected runs · 35 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / H-2 Cloud (Caches)CachesRot. B6.52%15.3 expected runs · 35 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / R-9 Cloud (Caches)CachesRot. B6.52%15.3 expected runs · 35 runs for 90%Veil Proxima / Nsu Grid (Caches)CachesRot. B6.52%15.3 expected runs · 35 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 9.09% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.