Confidence
Direct sources
Lua / ApolloDisruptionRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 41 minLua / ApolloDisruptionRot. C12.42%8.1 expected runs · 18 runs for 90% · ≈ 50 minSedna / BerehyniaInterceptionRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 50 minSedna / BerehyniaInterceptionRot. C14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 50 minPluto / CerberusInterceptionRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 53 minPluto / CerberusInterceptionRot. C14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 53 minEris / XiniInterceptionRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 53 minEris / XiniInterceptionRot. C14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 53 minEris / SporidInterceptionRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 55 minEris / SporidInterceptionRot. C14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 55 minEris / PhalanInterceptionRot. B14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 55 minEris / PhalanInterceptionRot. C14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90% · ≈ 55 minEris / ZabalaSurvivalRot. C12.50%8.0 expected runs · 18 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.5 hUranus / MirandaDefenseRot. C11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.5 hLua / YuvariumSurvivalRot. C11.36%8.8 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hUranus / OpheliaSurvivalRot. C11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 h
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 14.29% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.