Confidence
Direct sources
Venus / Bifrost Echo (Extra)Skirmish14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90%Venus / Beacon Shield Ring (Extra)Skirmish14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90%Venus / Orvin-Haarc (Extra)Skirmish14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90%Venus / Vesper Strait (Extra)Skirmish14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90%Venus / Luckless Expanse (Extra)Skirmish14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90%Venus / Falling Glory (Extra)Skirmish14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90%Earth / Sover Strait (Extra)Skirmish14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90%Earth / Iota Temple (Extra)Skirmish14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90%Earth / Ogal Cluster (Extra)Skirmish14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90%Earth / Korm's Belt (Extra)Skirmish14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90%Earth / Bendar Cluster (Extra)Skirmish14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90%Saturn / Mordo Cluster (Extra)Skirmish14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90%Saturn / Kasio's Rest (Extra)Skirmish14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90%Saturn / Nodo Gap (Extra)Skirmish14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90%Saturn / Lupal Pass (Extra)Skirmish14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90%Saturn / Vand Cluster (Extra)Skirmish14.29%7.0 expected runs · 15 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 17.78% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.