Confidence
Direct sources
Deimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 40-50BountyRot. A4.00%25.0 expected runs · 57 runs for 90% · ≈ 6.7 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 40-50BountyRot. B4.00%25.0 expected runs · 57 runs for 90% · ≈ 6.7 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 40-50BountyRot. C4.00%25.0 expected runs · 57 runs for 90% · ≈ 6.7 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 40-50BountyRot. A2.00%50.0 expected runs · 114 runs for 90% · ≈ 13.3 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 40-50BountyRot. B2.00%50.0 expected runs · 114 runs for 90% · ≈ 13.3 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 40-50BountyRot. C2.00%50.0 expected runs · 114 runs for 90% · ≈ 13.3 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 40-50BountyRot. A2.00%50.0 expected runs · 114 runs for 90% · ≈ 13.3 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 40-50BountyRot. B2.00%50.0 expected runs · 114 runs for 90% · ≈ 13.3 hDeimos / Cambion Drift · Nivel 40-50BountyRot. C2.00%50.0 expected runs · 114 runs for 90% · ≈ 13.3 h
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 4% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.