Confidence
Direct sources
Mercury / ElionCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minVenus / VeneraCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minEarth / MantleCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minMars / AraCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minMars / QuirinusCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minJupiter / AnankeCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minSaturn / PhoebeCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minSaturn / CassiniCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minUranus / ArielCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minUranus / TrinculoCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minNeptune / GalateaCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minPluto / HydraCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minPluto / CorbCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minCeres / LexCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minEris / CosisCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minEris / IsosCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minEuropa / AbaddonCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minEuropa / Cryotic FrontCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minEuropa / Cryotic FrontCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minEuropa / Cryotic FrontCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minEuropa / BelethCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minPhobos / LimtocCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minPhobos / SkyreshCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minPhobos / ToddCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minLua / CopernicusCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minJupiter / AmaltheaSpyRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hSaturn / DioneSpyRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hSaturn / AegaeonSpyRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hCeres / BodeSpyRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hEuropa / ValacSpyRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hCeres / SeimeniDefenseRot. A7.37%13.6 expected runs · 31 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.7 hMercury / LaresDefenseRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hVenus / TesseraDefenseRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hEarth / LithDefenseRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hMars / SpearDefenseRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hCeres / VarroDefenseRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hCeres / CastaDefenseRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hCeres / EgeriaDefenseRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hPhobos / DrunloDefenseRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hPhobos / GulliverDefenseRot. A9.09%11.0 expected runs · 25 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hPluto / SechuraDefenseRot. A7.37%13.6 expected runs · 31 runs for 90% · ≈ 1.9 hEris / AkkadDefenseRot. A7.37%13.6 expected runs · 31 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.2 hVenus / RomulaDefenseRot. A7.37%13.6 expected runs · 31 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.4 hEarth / CobaDefenseRot. A7.37%13.6 expected runs · 31 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.4 hMars / KadeshDefenseRot. A7.37%13.6 expected runs · 31 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.4 hJupiter / SinaiDefenseRot. A7.37%13.6 expected runs · 31 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.4 hSedna / SangeruDefenseRot. A7.37%13.6 expected runs · 31 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.4 hEuropa / LarzacDefenseRot. A7.37%13.6 expected runs · 31 runs for 90% · ≈ 2.4 hPhobos / OpikRushRot. A2.21%45.2 expected runs · 104 runs for 90%
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.