Confidence
Direct sources
Mercury / ElionCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minVenus / VeneraCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minEarth / MantleCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minMars / AraCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minMars / QuirinusCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minJupiter / AnankeCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minSaturn / PhoebeCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minSaturn / CassiniCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minUranus / ArielCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minUranus / TrinculoCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minNeptune / GalateaCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minPluto / HydraCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minPluto / CorbCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minCeres / LexCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minEris / CosisCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 minEris / IsosCapture11.06%9.0 expected runs · 20 runs for 90% · ≈ 30 min
We assume ~2.5 min per relic opening (short fissure). Per-mission timings are labeled by source: derived from game mechanics or community-estimated.
Expected runs = 100/chance · Runs for confidence p = ⌈ln(1−p)/ln(1−chance)⌉ · In a squad of 4 opening the same relic, the chance your part shows among the reveals is 1−(1−chance)⁴.
Each run has a 11.06% chance. The curve is 1−(1−p)ⁿ: there is never a guarantee, only growing confidence.